Is Nasrallah’s Death a Game-Changer? Matthew Levitt Breaks Down What’s at Stake for Israel, Iran, and Hezbollah

September 30, 2024

Could Israel’s elimination of Hezbollah’s leaders reshape the landscape of power in the Middle East? Matthew Levitt, Director of the Washington Institute's Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence, answers that pressing question, discusses the impact of Israel's recent offensive against Hezbollah, following the death of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and analyzes the ongoing military operations on the Israel-Lebanon border. The conversation also delves into Iran's strategic calculations, the potential consequences for Lebanon’s sovereignty, and the broader regional stability in light of Hezbollah’s diminished military capabilities.

Go Deeper: Setting the Record Straight on Hezbollah Terrorist Leader Hassan Nasrallah

*The views and opinions expressed by guests do not necessarily reflect the views or position of AJC.

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Transcript of Interview with Matthew Levitt:

Manya Brachear Pashman:

Since October 8, Iran's terror proxy Hezbollah has escalated its attacks on Israel, launching rockets, drones, mortar shells toward Israeli civilians on a near daily basis, more than 10,000 to date, pushing 1000s of residents from their homes in Israel's North more than 11 months later, on September 27 Israel Defense Forces launched a massive retaliatory airstrike targeting Hezbollah's headquarters in Lebanon, killing the group's founder and leader, Hassan Nasrallah and other senior officials.

Here to talk about how significant this development might be for Israel and its neighbors, is Dr. Matthew Levitt, director of the Reinhard Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence at the Washington Institute.

Matt, welcome to People of the Pod. I'm going to launch right into questions.

Has Hezbollah been significantly disabled by Israel's attack, or is Nasrallah’s death just a setback for the terrorist group?

Matthew Levitt:

This is extremely consequential, and it's not just this one attack. So we're talking about two weeks of activities that come straight out of Hollywood. Hollywood would have rejected the script for being too fanciful. First the pagers exploding 24 hours, then walkie talkies exploding. This, already coming on the heels of almost 500 Hezbollah operatives, some of them quite senior, being eliminated. So you already had the beginning of the kind of hierarchy of Hezbollah leadership being taken out, and now what you have is Fuad Shukr.

Ibrahim Akil, members of the jihad Council, the Ohio Military Council for Hezbollah, being taken and then, of course, on Friday, taking out the Hezbollah Operational Command Center, which itself is extremely important. And in that operation, killing both Hassan Nasrallah and another member of the jihad council, Ali Karaki and a senior Quds Force General.

It's so it's not one thing, it's the totality of all these things. And they haven't stopped. Seen over the weekend into Monday, more Israeli air strikes, where they are clearly taking out as much of the Hezbollah medium and long range rocket systems as possible, those are the systems that present the greatest threat to Israel.

And there are even reports coming out today that Israeli special forces units have been sneaking across the border to take out tunnels and other things, all of which is to say, the Hezbollah that existed just a few days ago no longer exists. Hezbollah is there, but it will take a very long time and a whole lot of support for it to reconstitute itself. And when this part of the war is done and it's not done yet, clearly the next phase is going to be preventing Iran from resupplying them. So already, an Iranian plane tried to land in Beirut.

The Israelis told the Lebanese Government, it lands. We shoot it. It didn't land. The Israelis targeted some type of smuggling operation all the way out on this Syrian Iraqi border over the weekend. Clearly the Hezbollah that exists today is nowhere near as capable of fighting a prolonged, full scale war as Hezbollah was, say, 10 days ago.

Manya Brachear Pashman:

And what does that mean for Iran in the region?

Matthew Levitt:

Look, Hezbollah was first among equals within Iran's proxy network, what it likes to call its access of resistance. And so it's not just effectively having lost Hamas as a fighting force in Gaza, and it's not even just losing another proxy. It's the pearl in Iran's proxy network. You know, we just published a new version of my book on Hezbollah with a new chapter that focuses on Hezbollah's role helping other Shia militant groups in the region make themselves more capable.

On behalf of this Iranian proxy network, Hezbollah is no longer available to do that, and it really picked up the pace of that activity on behalf of other Shia militia groups in the region after the death of Qasem Soleimani. So this is something more than just another militant group, and Iran for itself, you might think, because Hezbollah is so important, then the Iranians would attack Israel.

The Iranians are being very, very careful. They kind of got the message, right. If you attack Israel, Israel's going to hit back really, really hard. They understand that, unlike in April, where they shot some 300 projectiles at Israel, basically all of which missed, and then Israel had this very, very specific, limited attack back, shooting a small number of projectiles, all of which hit and took out air defense systems near Natanz, the one of the key nuclear facilities.

The Iranians understand that this time around, the Israeli response to be very, very different. And no one can say after the April response, well, maybe they can't go the distance. Maybe they can't get past the air defense systems. And if anybody had any questions, even just over this weekend, the Israelis responded to Houthi attacks from Yemen with a very, very long range attack just about the same distance, or near the same distance they'd have to go to hit some things in eastern Iraq and in Iran.

Manya Brachear Pashman:

And speaking of Iran nuclear negotiations, where do those stand now, if there are any still underway, and how does, how does this affect that>

Matthew Levitt:

It's very connected, even though the nuclear negotiations are effectively nowhere. Now there's a new Iranian president who is very focused on trying to roll back. Sanctions. He is, in fact, a moderate when it comes to some domestic policy. He is not a moderate when it comes to, does he support Hezbollah, etc. He's part of the system, and the system is very much one of what they would call resistance. And so while he came to the UN General Assembly last week, and had a much more kind of calm, moderate, sort of pragmatic message about diplomacy as he was saying those words, Iran was doing all kinds of other things in the region to support Hezbollah.

And more significantly for this issue, the nuclear issue, Iran has significantly ratcheted up its nuclear program activity over the past 11 months, authorities are concerned that we're maybe potentially weeks away from breakouts, should Iran make that decision, which it has not yet done, but that's a right on the cusp. And so this really does affect the calculations with Hezbollah, even before the Israeli actions to degrade Hezbollah's military capabilities, but certainly now, as Iran is trying to decide if it should conduct a retaliation of its own, because for Iran there's really only one red line.

It doesn't want whatever regional war it kicks off to cross into Iran, and it wants the powder dry on most of Hezbollah's rockets, because it sees those rockets as the best deterrent against an Israeli or anyone else's attack on Iran's nuclear program, or if someone should attack the nuclear program, the best second strike capability.

So it's not that the Iranians have become Zionists, nor have they backed off of their really serious desire to have Hezbollah take the fight to Israel just right now, there's a competing interest in their nuclear program, which is a much bigger strategic consideration, and so they actually want most of the power to drive as much of that powder is left after the Israeli airstrikes to defend against, to deter, against an attack on their nuclear program.

Manya Brachear Pashman:

So can I want to widen the lens of regional stability, not just Iran or Lebanon or Israel. I mean, some people have actually said September 27 was just as monumental for the Middle East as the Abraham accords. Is that a bit of a stretch? Or do you agree?

Matthew Levitt:

Look, it's premature to say exactly what September 27 will be, but it's something big, right? It's too early to tell the specific trajectory, but this is a watershed moment without question. I see the potential for very good things to come out of this. I see the potential for Lebanon to finally be able to declare sovereignty over its own country, Hezbollah, which is an unelected entity, the only sectarian militia to hold on to its weapons after the tight accords that ended the Civil War, has effectively been making decisions of life and death, war and peace for all Lebanese, without their say.

So many, many Lebanese, the overwhelming majority of Lebanese, don't want a war, and are going to be angry to Hezbollah for a war of choice that they jumped into on October 8, that may have dragged Lebanon into this war. I see an opportunity for a significant setback, if not broader, dismantling of Iran's proxy network. Hamas in Gaza is not what it once was, period.

It still exists. It can still do things in Gaza and the West Bank. It has leadership in Lebanon and Turkey and Qatar, but it is not what it once was, and the Israelis have demonstrated by killing Ismael Hania in Iran when he was there for the President's inauguration, in an IRGC safe house that they will take the fight where they need to to eliminate arch terrorists behind things like October 7 you saw over the weekend Hezbollah getting hit really, really hard again and again and again. This is not a one off like the assassination of Abbas Moussaoui, the original secretary general of Hezbollah in 1992.

You saw this weekend after the Houthis attacked Israel again and the Israelis went in hard and hit Houthi infrastructure in Yemen, and so the next stage of this has to be doing much more to disrupt Iran's ability to send weapons and to send money to its proxies without those weapons, without that money, the Houthis, frankly, are an annoying prick in the Saudi backside. Without that funding, Hezbollah is nowhere near what it became over the past few decades, and the same goes for the rest of the Iranian proxies.

Manya Brachear Pashman:

How does this affect the conflict in Gaza with Hamas?

Matthew Levitt:

Look, Nasrallah hitched his wagon to Hamas by announcing that he would continue targeting Israel with near daily rocket attacks so long as there was not a ceasefire. That gave Hamas leader yikes in war and Gaza even more leverage. And while it's true that Prime Minister Netanyahu was sometimes playing hardball over control of the Philadelphi corridor, etc.

US officials that I've spoken to have been involved in this process say that the reason there hasn't been a ceasefire deal of the past few weeks is entirely Hamas fault, because Hamas moved the goalposts on which specific Hamas leaders were to be in prison were to be released in the first round, wanting the worst of the worst now, probably thinking there wouldn't be a second round, and there's no way the Israelis were going to be able to do that. One thing that this does is it demonstrates to Hamas just how serious Israel is.

I mean, Hamas is far less dangerous than Hezbollah, and if Israel's willing to do all of this against Hezbollah, Hamas has to understand like this is not ending anytime soon. There's also talk about whether or not the Iranians turn to Hamas at some point and try and find a face saving way for Hamas to say, Okay, well, we'll take a ceasefire, because that would provide Hezbollah face saving way to say, Okay, now we're going to stop the rockets, which maybe would end the Israeli onslaught targeting Hezbollah. I think that that is not a likely scenario, but it is a real scenario.

Iran is not going to sacrifice Hezbollah its crown jewel in its proxy network for Hamas, and so there's lots of ways this goes, but it ultimately doesn't change the fact that Hamas is still holding hostages, that the time is running out for these hostages, as painful as it is to to articulate that And that Israel is still fighting on multiple fronts.

Manya Brachear Pashman:

How should the US respond? Or should the US even participate in this?

Matthew Levitt:

The US should not participate in this, and the Israelis will not ask Israel to the United States to participate in this. They never have. The United States, the administration has come out with very clear messages saying that Israel has a right to defend itself, and understanding that this is in response to 11 and a half months of your daily shelling. This is not an Israeli escalation. It is a long, long delayed Israeli response.

They understand that the Israeli war cabinet, before this all started, before the pages went off, they expanded the war goals not to include the destruction of Hezbollah, not even to include a goal of destroying as many of Hezbollah's missiles as possible. The war goal is very clear, to enable the 60,000 plus Israelis displaced from their homes to be able to go home after 11 and a half months. And to do that, they have to deal with the rocket threat, and they have to deal with the threat of a cross border, October 7-style invasion by Hezbollah, of the type by the way, that Hezbollah is apparently plotting when Israel took out Ibrahim Akhil and a bunch of other Radwan special forces commanders last week.

And so I think the administration understands that. The administration also just concluded a very significant arms deal with Israel that will provide Israel the weaponry it needs to defend itself. And the United States has also sent naval assets in particular to the region as a signal to Iran in particular, don't get involved. And I think that has been a message that the Iranians have also heard.

Manya Brachear Pashman:

Just as in the Gaza conflict, there have been calls for an immediate ceasefire in Lebanon because of the level of civilian casualties and the possibility of escalating violence. Matt, what's your take?

Matthew Levitt:

Two things can be true. There is more work to be done, and this is having devastating consequences. As we saw in Gaza we are seeing in Lebanon. The consequence of a militant terrorist group establishing military infrastructure behind and under civilian infrastructure, and hiding behind human shields. And there's only so much warning you can do, and the Israelis have sent warnings–get out of Dakia, they sent warnings on cell phones in Lebanon, you know, if there are rockets near your house, get out.

There's only so much you can do. The Israelis are now, in a matter of days, dismantling more of the Hezbollah military infrastructure and firepower that has been built. Over decades now than they have over many, many, many, many years. And so there'll be calls in Israel to continue to push to not mitigate or even degrade, but to destroy as much of the military threat that Hezbollah has been posing as possible. There will also be calls for taking the win and not going in on the ground, because a ground war could be dangerous for Israeli soldiers. It could get Israelis bogged down, and there'll be a political debate there.

But whether Israel really needs some type of new security zone in the south, plenty of people are kind of saying, we saw that movie. It didn't go so well. Don't go there again. But there is a real feeling in Israel that that they have to do whatever it is they have to do to not reassert deterrence, but to actually degrade the threat and enable people to go back to their lives after you know, it's, it's almost a year from the south and the north.

These are not, these are not easy decisions, and we should not take lightly at all, the consequence for civilians in Gaza, the consequence for civilians in Lebanon, and, of course, consequence for civilians in Israel too. War is horrible, and I blame Hamas and Hezbollah for starting one on October 7th and 8th.

Manya Brachear Pashman:

Well, it sounds like you need to write a new chapter for your book.

Matthew Levitt:

Wow. A week after the last new chapter came out, but you're not wrong.

Manya Brachear Pashman:

Thank you so much, Matt. Really appreciate you joining us.

Matthew Levitt:

It's really such a pleasure to be here. I really look forward to doing another AJC podcast on a much more uplifting topic sometime in the near future. But until then, let's hope that the region becomes more secure and that the ground is laid for us to have that kind of calmer conversation in the near future.